Which bias involves the assumption of a cause-and-effect relationship without sufficient evidence?

The correct answer is causation bias, which refers to the tendency to assume that one event or phenomenon is the direct cause of another without sufficient evidence supporting such a claim. This bias can lead to incorrect conclusions about the nature of relationships between variables, often simplifying complex interactions into a straightforward cause-and-effect narrative.

In the context of the other choices, trial and error involves learning through repeated attempts and is more about finding solutions than assuming causality. The availability heuristic is a cognitive bias where individuals rely on immediate examples that come to mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method, or decision, rather than focusing specifically on cause-and-effect. Functional fixedness is a cognitive bias that limits a person’s ability to use an object only in the way it is traditionally used, which is not directly related to causation but more focused on problem-solving limitations.

Causation bias, therefore, is uniquely relevant as it directly addresses the incorrect assumption of direct relationships between variables without rigorous analysis or supporting evidence.